Dynamic trends

The Impact of Immigration

From the offices of small business owners to the speeches of presidential hopefuls, immigration has become a key issue for this country. A recent study that closely looks at population patterns through a Hispanic lens reveals that not only will Latinos increase in numbers coming decades, but they will account for most of the nation’s population growth.
Should current demographic trends continue, the United States population will increase from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million in 2050, and 82 percent of that increase will be due to an influx of immigrants and their U.S.-born offspring, according to projections developed by the Pew Research Center.
Because of this anticipated immigration, the demographic profile of the United States will change dramatically by the middle of this century, according to the projections.
By 2050, the racial and ethnic mix of the nation’s population is expected to look quite different than it does today. Non-Hispanic whites, who made up 67 percent of the population in 2005, will account for only 47 percent in 2050, making them a minority for the first time. The proportion of Hispanics, meanwhile, will more than double from 14 percent of the population in 2005 to 29 percent in 2050. Blacks, who comprised 13 percent of the population in 2005, will maintain roughly the same proportion in 2050. Asians, who were 5 percent of the population in 2005, will nearly double their presence to become 9 percent in 2050.
The study found that of the 117 million people expected to be added through immigration to the U.S. population between 2005 and 2050, 67 million will be first-generation immigrants and 50 million will be their U.S. born children or grandchildren.
According to the study 19 percent of Americans (or nearly one in five) will be immigrants in 2050, compared to 12 percent (or one in eight) less than five decades earlier. By 2025, the Pew Research Center forecasts, the immigrant or foreign born portion of the population will exceed the height of the last great wave of immigration that occurred at the turn of the 20th century.
The Center’s report also found that the United State’s elderly population will increase twofold by 2050 as baby boomers go into retirement. As a result, the nation’s future “dependency ratio”—the number of children and elderly compared to the number of working age Americans —will rise from 59 children and elderly per 100 working age adults in 2005 to 72 children and elderly per 100 working age adults in 2050.
Demographic changes are important due to their impact on key areas such as the nation’s tax base and workforce, in addition to government spending in areas such as schools, community services, health programs, key infrastructure and Social Security.
Immigration is projected to be the key driver of national population growth in the coming half century, but it is important to note that possible future changes in immigration policy or other events could substantially alter the projected totals, the Pew study says. These projections, which were based on figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, are based on trends over the past half century during which immigration, both authorized and unauthorized, played an escalating role in U.S. population growth.

TOPLINE FINDINGS
The Latino population will triple, accounting for most of the nation’s growth from 2005-2050. Hispanics will make up 29 percent of the population in 2050, compared to 14 percent in 2005.

Non-Hispanic whites will become a minority (47 percent) by 2050.

The nation’s foreign-born population, 36 million in 2005, is projected to rise to 81 million in 2050, an increase of 129 percent.

The foreign-born share of the nation’s population will exceed historic highs sometime between 2020 and 2025, when it reaches 15 percent. The historic peak was 14.7 percent in 1910 and 14.8 percent in 1890.

The share of children who are Hispanic will rise markedly, from 20 percent in 2005 to 35 percent in 2050. Non-Hispanic whites, who made up 59 percent of children in 2005, are projected to be 40 percent of children in 2050.

The proportion of Hispanics in the elderly population will almost triple, from 6 percent to 17 percent, between 2005 and 2050 but will be substantially less than the proportion of Hispanics in younger age groups.